Online betting is not just gambling. It is competent analysis, discipline and understanding of mathematical principles. The basis of any approach is the odds. They reflect not only the possible winnings, but also the probability of an event. There are three formats for displaying odds:
- decimal;
- American;
- fractional.
For example, the decimal format means that with a bet of 1000₽, you will get back 2500₽ — and 1500₽ profit. From the odds, you can calculate the “implied” probability of an event.
Why is it important to understand the odds
Knowledge of the odds format and sports betting strategy helps to compare offers from different bookmakers and find the most profitable ones. In addition, understanding the embedded probability allows you to assess how much it corresponds to your own analytics. If, in your opinion, the probability of an event is higher than the odds indicate, you are looking at a so-called value bet.
Such value bets provide profit over time, even if not everyone wins. This is one of the basic approaches to professional betting, where the key factor is precisely the accurate assessment of probabilities. It is important to take into account the bookmaker’s margin – margin or “vig”. This is the difference between the sum of the probabilities for all outcomes and 100%. For example, the total implied probabilities of 104% mean a margin of 4%, which affects the price range and reduces real payouts to players.
Value bets – bet on events where the true probability is higher than the implied coefficient. This is the key to a long-term positive mathematical expectation. The technique includes calculating your own probability, comparing it with the bookmaker’s mark and selecting bets where there is a plus. For example, if you estimate the favorite with a chance of 60%, and the bookmaker gives a coefficient of 2.0 – this is a value bet.
Betting strategies can be simple or complex. Flat betting means a fixed bet size regardless of a series of wins or losses – helps control the bankroll. For advanced players, the Kelly criterion is applicable – the bet size is calculated using a formula taking into account the edge and probability in order to maximize long-term capital growth. Hedging is an additional bet on the opposite outcome, which allows you to fix the profit or reduce losses depending on the changes in the situation. This is useful when you need to protect an already winning bet.